My (very realistic) proposal for this Transfer Window

Let's start by analizing our team in the end of the 2011/12 season (the players avaiable to Inter are marked with an X). Information was gathered from most reliable sources as possible (even though transfermarkt clearly overestimates most player's value).

Moratti has already set the guidelines, so my proposal will focus on:

1. Rejuvenating the team

2. Cutting down wages

3. Bringing players to key positions where they are lacking

What happened so far:

- We've executed our purchase option for Guarin for 10m instead of the rumoured 13,5m

- The 30 years old WF Palacio from Genoa comes for 10m and rumoured wages of 1,7m per season in a three years contract

- Cordoba retires

- Pandev is sold to Napoli for 8m

My very realistic proposal for each position (assuming a 4231 or 433):

Centre Forward

No change needed.

Players: Milito, Pazzini and Castaignos

Wide Forward

Sell Forlan for 3m and bring Giovinco for 20m. Pandev is already out and Palacio is already in. Try to bring someone young on loan.

Players: Giovinco, Palacio, Alvarez + loan

Attacking Midfield

The position which would lose the most on this transfer window with Sneijder leaving. Coutinho back from Espanyol will have to prove his worth and we should also promote Bessa to see if the kid's really good.

Players: Coutinho, Alvarez, Bessa

Defensive & Central Midfield

Execute our buying options for the quite good Guarin for 10m (already done) and Poli for 6m.

Players: Guarin, Cambiasso, Poli, Obi, Stankovic + loan

Left Back

No change needed.

Players: Zanetti, Nagatomo

Right Back

Sell Maicon and pay the expensive price for Chilean Isla.

Players: Isla, Faraoni, Jonathan

Centre Back

The biggest renewal. Cordoba retired and Chivu should be gone for free. Sell Lucio and buy Silvestre and Andreolli.

Players: Samuel, Ranocchia, Silvestre, Juan, Andreolli

Goalkeepers

With Orlandoni retiring, just use Primavera's Di Gennaro as bench if needed (Orlandoni did not play any game last season).

Players: Julione, Castelazzi, Di Gennaro

Overall

In the end we are still 8m positive not counting the wages for the loaned players nor the wage increase of some of our players (for instance Nagatomo got +0,5m). So this is very close to break-even for the 2012/13 season. But we'd cut down our total net wages from 62,8m to close to 50m or a 25% reduction. That means enough money to bring one of Lavezzi or Lucas EACH year.

And at the same time we'd rejuvenate our squad and make it competitive again for next season. Please Moratti, make it happen.

FORZA INTER!!

Reducing wages...

The main guidance set by Moratti for this first weeks of the Transfer Window seems to be reducing the wage's bill for next season. For the 2011/12 we've reported a total of 62,8 millions net wages, a decrease from the 68,9m of the previous season but still much above the amount needed for us to meet the Financial Fair Play rules (as we can see in this excellent article by the Swiss Ramble).

 

As for the last season, we can split the players who earn reasonably low wages (up to 1,5 millions net per season) and players with high wages (from 3,0 to 4,5 m). There are really only a few exceptions outside these ranges with intermediate wages (from 1,5 to 3,0 there were only Pazzini, Guarin, Palombo and Zarate - the last, already replaced by Palacio with similar earnings) and Sneijder who earns amazing 6,0 m.

 

Most Inter players are in the high range with 11 players totalling 39,5 m per season. If we add Sneijder, it amounts to 12 players and 45,5 m. We can also add Pandev, who earns 3m but we didn't paid his wages last season. So let's split these players into three groups:

 

Most likely to stay:

- Samuel (3,0m): has already renewed his contract with wages until undisclosed (but probably below the current 3,0m)

- Zanetti (3,0m): our legend is going nowhere

- Milito (4,5m): the top scorer for Inter last season and also 2nd in Serie A is almost sure to start the matches as Centre Forward next season

- Cambiasso (4,0m): our veteran DM is highely likely to stay because A. we can't refresh every single player in the midfield in just one year, B. he is one of the few players with no rumours around and C. he is Argentinean

 

 

Most likely to leave:

- Cordoba (3,0m): Cafe has already announced his retirement from the fields and should take up a position in Inter's administration

- Chivu (3,5m): the Romanian's contract ends this month. Inter made an undisclosed offer with a wage reduction but the rumours link him to many clubs where he could be a starter, specially Galatasaray (TUR)

- Lucio (3,5m): according to his agent, he's already looking for a new club. Most likely destination is Flamengo (BRA) or another Brazilian club

- Maicon (4,0m): as always, there are rumours of interest from PSG (FRA). This time the transaction might go forward given Inter's interest in Isla, who has already stated he'd like to play for the nerazzurri

- Forlan (3,5m): some clubs from Brazil are interested yet his current wages are unatainable at Brazil's Serie A. So far, Forlan has priorized his wages over playing time, but we'll see in the next two months as Inter's already shown the will to sell him

- Pandev (3,0m): deal with Napoli for 8,0 m seems to be lacking only oficialization

 

 

And those who are really undefined so far:

 - JC (4,5m): rumours link him to Flamengo, but a trade would mean bringing Viviano (co-owned with Palermo) or Udinese's Handanovic to Inter and that's not likely at this moment

- Sneijder (6,0m): yet again another Sneijder novel. We've become used to hearing several teams bidding on him and we never know when he will really be sold. If Lucas comes (highly unlikely as Sao Paulo has decline a 18m proposal for the young Brazilian) then he could be sold; otherwise, the Dutch playmaker should stay with us

- Stankovic (3,0m): the Serb denied the rumours linking him to American teams. The constant injuries and the his physical shape, clearly unable to support 90 minutes at full speed in the end of the season generated several critics towards him but Stramaccioni considers him as a vital piece. If any of the prospects for the position (as De Jong or Sahin) comes, then he could leave.

In the end, it is good to see the management taking decisions that should've been taken long ago. Regardless of FFP, we need to aim for a team that is financially viable if we want the Grande Inter to be sucessful in the long run without depending on the good will of Moratti in injecting (even more) money (than he has already had). Other good measures as aiming to increase the commercial revenue (Inter's stores in China, tour in Indonesia, etc) and the dreams of a new stadium (with the recent talks of a potential partnership with the China Railway Construction Company) are also being taken but that is a different matter and a different post.

For now, we can only hope Inter's management will understand that, even though we need to cut down wages, a team with results is equally important for the overall financial results of a team. That means we need to compete for the scudetto and at least play in the Champions League every single year. Will the replacements for the many players leaving be up for this job?

FORZA INTER

Ps.: source for most information is this FIF thread by Michael. A highly recommended read.

Figo & Materazzi

I just had to post this awesome photo of Luis Figo and Marco Materazzi!

Halfway later...

And so far so good... despite the tie with Fiorentina, we are still alive in the race with Inter, Napoli, Lazio and Udinese all tied (55 points). In these three games we've managed to completely close the 6 points difference to 3rd.

Now let's hope Napoli screws up!

FORZA INTER!

The long road to Europe

Today we will play Udinese, trying to gain points on the Champions League and on the Europa League. But what lays ahead of us and of our opponents until the season end?

Inter: Udinese (a), Fiorentina (h), Cesena (h), Parma (a), Milan (h), Lazio (a)

Lazio: Novara (a), Lecce (h), Udinese (a), Siena (h), Atalanta (a), Inter (h)

Udinese: Inter (h), Chievo (a), Lazio (h), Cesena (a), Genoa (h), Catania (a)

Roma: Fiorentina (h), Juventus (a), Napoli (h), Chievo (a), Catania (h), Cesena (a)

Napoli: Lecce (a), Novara (h), Roma (a), Palermo (h), Bologna (a), Siena (h)

Considering the remaining games, our road is specially trickier. We will have three hard games out of the remaining six while Lazio, Udinese and Roma will face two and Napoli only one. From these three games, the two direct disputes should be played away, including today's against Udinese.

On the other hand, the 35th matchday should be entertaining and a guarantee that someone will drop points to us as all the other four teams will face one another (Lazio vs Udinese and Roma vs Napoli).

So, my prediction is...

I don't need to say that green means a win, right?

We are the thick dark blue line behind Napoli

Napoli makes it to Champions League and we finish tied with Lazio in Europa League. After a disastrous start with Assperini and the "rise and fall" of Ranieri, I'll be happy enough if Stramaccioni brings us a place in an European tournament. Any one of them.

(Although, looking at individual games, I believe that Napoli should be able to win all games (and Inter 5 out of 6), I've added a fuck-up coefficient because all teams are likely to drop at least a few points in silly matches: I just can't figure out when.)

Today's match is really important!
FORZA INTER

Eto'o x Tevez

Ok, so we have lots of rumbling about Tevez.

Apparently, our current bid seems to be 27 mill to Man City (and 6 mill yearly to Tevez) as opposed to 25 from Milan (Tevez's choice so far) and 35 from PSG.

If he ends up in Inter this means we have sold Eto'o for 28 mill and are now getting Tevez for 27 mill. Seems a replacement for me. So let's compare them both:

Honestly, I won't bother discussing which one is better as clearly they both are world class players. So what can we say? Tevez is 3 years younger and 5 millions cheaper per year (taxes over wages accounted). But he is also unstable as hell: he just went "fuck you Man City, lemme play some golf back in Argentina".

My concern is that he will prove to be a problem in a few years. We sold Eto'o because he was getting older and losing market value, but what can we expect from Tevez in 2-3 years? Nobody in England wants him and he doesn't want to go to France nor places with smaller leagues (Russia, China, etc). Don't think Spanish nor German teams would be willing to take him so that leaves us with the option with him coming back to Latin America.

Corinthians seems a good bet, as his agent is Kia Joorabchian was the president of MSI when the company had an agreement with the club and there were rumours linking them together. Besides their history on buying great yet older and out-of-form Inter players (Ronaldo, Adriano). But Corinthians is not likely to pay 25 million euros on anyone because that is ridiculous money for Brazilian soccer league. So how much can we expect to get?

In the end, we may end up trading up a more expensive athetle who is losing market value for a cheaper troublemaker who is losing market value. Meh, can't tell you if I like it. But I'm sure Donatella Versace doesn't.

I wonder why...

Forza Inter

The beginning of 2012

This post is intended to give a brief overview on how the start of 2012 will be for Inter across all teams and competitions. So we start with:

Serie A

Current standing: 5th place

Next match: Home against Parma on Sat, Jan 7 (20:45 CET) 

Us: After an horrible start in the hands of 343 Gasperini, Ranieri seems to have put this team back on the tracks as we end the year with four straight wins in Serie A. What does it means? Very little. None of the four wins were really impressive (maybe the one against Lecce but hey, playing at home with the weakest team in Serie A...) and none of them were against big teams. On the other hand, the losses against bigger clubs were also not that bad so... 2012 will really be an wildcard. The team is much much better than 6 months ago, but that also doesn't mean much. Our true tests will be the derby and Lazio. I personally have a good feeling that if Sneijder comes back and Nagatomo continues bossing around, we could even dream about the Scudetto. Positive expectancies over the many players that returned or are returning from injuries (Wall, Forlan, Sneijder, Maicon, ...) and someone new on the winter Mercato.

Coppa Italia

Current standing: qualified for round of 8
Next match: Home against Genoa on Thu, Jan 19 (21:00 CET)

Us: ohh, is it now we start playing?

Them: we should have few issues getting past Genoa (as recently seen). After that, things start getting tricky with (probably) Napoli, Udinese and Milan (or Juventus).

Champions League

Current standing: qualified for round of 16 as 1st of group B
Next match: Away against Olympique Marseille on Wed, Feb 22 (20:45 CET)

Us: I cannot say we struggled to qualify as we had secured top spot one game ahead but I was expecting more points in the easiest group of CL.

Them: in the CL they got exactly the expected results: 2 losses to Real Madrid, 2 ties with Ajax and 2 wins against Dinamo Zagreb. On Ligue 1 they stand in 6th, behind Lille (our favorite victim this year). Not the easiest opponent (Basel, Apoel Nicosia) but surely not the hardest (Bayer Leverkussen, Olympique Lyonnais).

Italy: this was a very good season so far for Italy in European leagues after all that mumbling about the decline of Italian calcio. All three teams managed to get trough in CL (including the very dificult task of Napoli to overcome Man. City) and two (Udinese and Lazio) out of four in Europa League.

Campionato Nazionale Primavera

 

Current standing: 4th (one game down)
Next match: Home against Cittadella on Sat, Jan 14

Us: Inter is curently down one match (Home against Varese) and three points below the leader Milan. The team, coached by Andrea Stramaccioni, has some names that we are getting used to hearing more often and that could prove to be valuable assets for first squad in the near future: Di Gennaro (goalkeeper), Alborno (Paraguayan defender), Bianchetti (defender), Bessa (Brazilian midfielder), Romanò (midfielder) and Longo (forward). Honestly, I really think Stramaccioni and his team deserve more attention and I'd like to watch their games, specially in the NextGen Series... but the Primavera team deserves an exclusive post for them, so at this moment I will just say they are doing their job very well.

Coppa Italia Primavera

Current standing: disqualified in the round of 8 (Fiorentina)

NextGen Series

 

Current standing: qualified for round of 8 as 2nd of group D

Next match: Away against Sporting Lisbon on Wed, Jan 25 (only one leg)

Us: After a crushing defeat to Tottenham away on the first round (7-1), Inter has managed to win their games against other group opponents (PSV and Basel) and draw against Tottenham at home. We still have one game left on the group stages but are already qualified for the next round with 10 points in 5 games.

Them: Sporting Lisbon qualified as 1st of group B with five wins against Liverpool, Wolfsburg and Molde and a draw away to Wolfsburg to total 16 points in 6 games.

Italy: Inter is the only Italian team fighting in this competition (4 British, 2 Norwegian (!!!), 2 Dutch, 1 German, 1 Scottish, 1 Spanish (only Barça), 1 Portuguese, 1 French and 1 Turk).

Others

We also lead or at tied for first in ALL other young championships: Juniores Berretti (U18), Allievi Nazionale (U17), Allievi Regionali (U16), Giovanissimi Nazionali (U15), Giovanissimi Regionali (U14) and Giovanissimi Regionali B (U13). Many congratulations for all the youth teams that prove that Inter reigns supreme in Italian calcio.


Happy holidays!